The newly announced US-EU trade pact should be seen as a fragile truce rather than a lasting peace treaty, as widespread dissatisfaction and unresolved issues threaten its long-term stability. The deal, while averting an immediate trade war over cars, has created a host of new political and economic grievances.
The fragility comes from its imbalanced nature. The “act first” condition imposed on the EU has been branded a “submission” in France, creating political resentment that could fester. Furthermore, the exclusion of key sectors like wine and spirits from any relief has angered powerful industry lobbies, who have vowed to continue their fight.
On the US side, criticism from the domestic spirits industry over job and revenue losses shows that the deal is not without its American detractors. If the economic pain for this sector deepens, it could create domestic pressure on Washington to revisit the terms.
Most importantly, the deal doesn’t address the root cause of the recent trade friction: a fundamental disagreement on trade policy and the use of tariffs as a geopolitical tool. By papering over these cracks to solve the most immediate problem, the deal leaves the foundation of the transatlantic trade relationship on shaky ground, susceptible to crumbling under future political or economic pressure.
