A recent poll indicates that if elections were conducted today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc would secure 51 seats in the 120-member Israeli Knesset, falling short of a majority. The survey, released on Thursday, also shows the main Zionist opposition bloc winning 55 seats, leaving both sides unable to form a government independently.
The poll highlights the crucial role that two Arab-majority parties could play in coalition-building, as they are projected to gain a combined 14 seats. This potential influence comes as the Yashar party, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, emerges as the largest single party with 24 seats, according to the poll’s findings.
Within Netanyahu’s bloc, his Likud party is anticipated to win 22 seats, leading the group. Other parties in the bloc include Shas with 10 seats, United Torah Judaism with nine, Otzma Yehudit with seven, and Religious Zionism with four. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is projected to secure 14 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats are expected to win nine and eight seats, respectively.
Several smaller parties, such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel, HaMiluimnikim, and Blue and White, did not reach the 3.25% electoral threshold required for Knesset representation. The People of Israel party received 3% support, falling just short of the mark.
Amidst the possibility of another electoral deadlock, the poll reveals varied preferences among voters. Approximately 31.4% of respondents would prefer another election, while 29.6% favor a unity government, and 27% support a minority government. Notably, 45.02% of Netanyahu’s supporters lean towards a unity government, whereas 39.79% of those opposed to him favor a minority government.
The survey, which included 500 respondents and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, underscores the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the formation of Israel’s next government as the October 27 election approaches.