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Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Oil Market’s Uneasy Calm: Ceasefire Doubts Linger

The oil market settled into an uneasy calm, with prices paring back losses, as doubts lingered over the declared Israel-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude, the global benchmark, reflected the underlying caution among traders.

The initial plunge in Brent crude was a direct response to Donald Trump’s announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire.” However, this positive sentiment was quickly undermined by reports from Israel of new missile barrages from Iran, leading to a significant rebound in oil prices.

This rapid shift in oil prices underscores the market’s deep skepticism regarding the long-term stability of the ceasefire. The “war premium” previously embedded in oil prices is currently being unwound, but the potential for renewed conflict remains a significant factor influencing trading decisions.

Broader financial markets, including global stock exchanges, generally reacted positively to the initial ceasefire news. Travel and leisure stocks saw notable gains, reflecting hopes for a more stable environment. However, oil company shares experienced declines, indicating a perceived reduction in geopolitical risk.

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