Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future is uncertain as final election results reveal his bloc falling short of a parliamentary majority. The election outcome has set the stage for intricate coalition talks, with Arab-led parties emerging as potential kingmakers after securing 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset, marking their strongest performance to date.
Netanyahu’s bloc obtained 53 seats, while the main opposition alliance secured 48. With 61 seats required to form a government, neither side can achieve power without support from additional political groups. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and his allies could potentially form an anti-Netanyahu coalition with the Arab-led parties, potentially securing a majority of up to 67 seats. However, such cooperation could face significant resistance from right-wing politicians and voters.
Arab citizens, who make up approximately 20% of Israel’s population, have increasingly significant political influence, driven by strong voter turnout and opposition to Netanyahu’s far-right allies. Despite this, Netanyahu has criticized the possibility of an opposition government relying on Arab parties, labeling such cooperation a threat to national security.
Another possible outcome is a national unity government involving both Netanyahu and opposition politicians. However, Eisenkot and his allies have consistently rejected serving under Netanyahu, citing his leadership during security failures, including the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and concerns about democratic institutions. Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial remains a major point of contention.
Allegations of potential foreign interference in the election have further fueled political tensions. Israel’s election authorities have requested an investigation by the Shin Bet security agency following claims of irregularities. Qatar has denied allegations of involvement, while election officials emphasize that unverified claims should not undermine the legitimacy of Arab voters or the election results.
If coalition negotiations are unsuccessful, Israel could face another election early next year, with Netanyahu’s government continuing in a caretaker role. The country has experienced multiple elections in recent years due to prolonged political deadlock. The final election results are expected to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog, who will select a candidate to attempt to form the next government, with the new Knesset scheduled to be sworn in on November 10.